954 days. That's how long this bull market has been rising, since the 1,810 low on February 11, 2016. Two years and seven months is quite a bull market, and the annual return of 25% if you were lucky enough to get in at the low, and get out a few weeks ago. There have been a few 5% pullbacks along the way, and then the quick 12% drop at the beginning of this year, but for the most part it's been a strong and steady climb.
It's interesting how few times the S&P 500 has closed below its 40-week moving average, during this bull run. It's certainly traded below it a number of times, but on closing basis, only two times in two years and seven months - November 4, 2016 and March 23, 2018. This past week, though, was its second consecutive weekly close below its moving average. On the plus-side, we have yet to see the 10-week moving average cross below the 40-week. It seems inevitable, though.
How low will this selloff go? Of course nobody knows, but the market does seem to alternate between mild-and-long, and extreme-and-short. The 2015 - 2016 bear market was almost nine months long, but very mild at a 15% pullback. So mild in fact, that half of the experts out there don't even consider it a bear market. But since this non-expert does, it leads me to expect this bear market to be much shorter in duration - perhaps just thirty days? I don't know, but election day is two weeks away. But the flip-side of short is extreme and this could be one for the record books. Or not. But I think it will be.
Shorter term, I will be watching the 2,767 level tomorrow morning - the market spent much of Thursday and Friday trading around this level. There is a lot of resistance at 2,783 - 2,785. Near term support levels are 2,752, 2,742, and 2,734. Earnings are likely to continue dominating the news, again this week - primarily on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Should the Saudi assassination fiasco blow-up into U.S. sanctions (or appear like it might), the major defense companies are sure to be impacted, and will have to answer those questions on their investor calls this week.