I believe that the 1/29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s same-day press conference suggest that the Fed is likely to stay on hold through the end of this year. Furthermore, the Fed’s next move, whenever that comes, is likelier to be a rate cut than the start of more hikes. That’s because Fed officials remain concerned that inflation has stayed stubbornly below their 2.0% target.
-- Dr. Ed's Blog
This is definitely the prevailing wisdom, right now. I'm taking the other side, with an overweight position in TIP (the iShares TIPS Bond ETF) vs. intermediate Treasuries. The prevailing wisdom could certainly end up being right, but in my opinion the inflation risk is to the upside, not the downside.