The month of November began with a bang, as the market gapped-up to open at 3,050.7 on the first trading day of the month, closing the session at 3,066.9 for a gain of 1% over October’s 3,037.6 close. The S&P 500 continued nearly unabated, to an intraday high of 3,127.6 on 19 November, before pulling-back nearly 1% to close at 3,103.5 on 21 November. The index would proceed to close November at 3,141.0 after hitting 3,154.3 on 27 November. For the month, the S&P 500 gained 3.4% which equaled its 2016 November performance. Quite a month!
Recent history has not been nearly as kind to the S&P 500 in December, as it has been in November. The index gained 1.8% in 2016, 0.9% in 2017 and -9.2% last year. The 10-month moving average currently sits at 2,932.1 or 7% below November’s close, while the 3-month moving average is 2.9% below November’s close at 3,051.8. Both moving averages are rising.
We will get the manufacturing PMI on Monday. The market really wants to see another increase, so anything over October’s 48.3 number is going to be good news. We have not seen two consecutive months of manufacturing PMI increases since May and June of 2018 (and three consecutive increases since 2017!).
We start all over again on Monday, so enjoy your Black Friday and have a fantastic weekend!