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Beware The Wild West Of Recession Analytics

Consider, for instance, a new Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of US credit investors, which was breathlessly presented this week as a warning that a “recession fears have hit an all-time high, its highest reading” according to a headline. That sounds worrisome, but the details reveal that "the perceived probability of a recession in the next year spiked to 25%" and the history of the data set are a mere three years old.
-- James Picerno, The Capital Spectator