In the absence of a near-term stock market sell-off, all signs point to further escalation in the China trade war.
-- Jed Graham, IBD
I think that's a good take - both sides are trying to pressure the other by taking shots at the other's stock market. So far, the U.S. is in a much stronger position than China, because of support from allies like the U.K. and Japan. Europe, despite their protestations, is also motivated to support the Huawei ban, because it helps Ericsson and Nokia, who have competing 5G systems.
If everything's coming up roses for the U.S. position, that's exactly why there may be trouble. With few cards to play, Apple's taking the brunt of the Chinese response since it makes up about 5% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but so far that's not enough to significantly affect the U.S. markets. China has to do more, and that is the risk the U.S. is facing.